1
Nov
2005

More Madness- Wash Post Article - Russia Nukes US - Alabama Gets the Bomb

Washington Post Article by William H. Arkin 'Russia Nukes United States'.

(What Arkin - and the US military that does these excercises - fails to mention is that if Russia really were to nuke the US, the US would be toast several times over, with hardly a single person and no cities at all, left. The survival of not only US citizens, but of most land-based living things all over the world would be problematic. (this assumes current or near current warhead levels of round 2,500 warheads, used for 'city busting'.) US/Russia thermonuclear war is not an event one can 'manage'. It is an event that would be terminal at least for both societies and probably for most humans and other living things. ) Early Warning William M. Arkin on National and Homeland Security Russia Nukes the United States

Code Name of the Week: Slomonia

Scooter Schmooter, Russia is about to nuke the United States.

Tomorrow, the U.S. military begins its largest "national" military exercise of the fiscal year, an exercise that posits a return of the "old guard" to Russia and a crisis that ends in a nuclear attack on the United States.

I previously wrote about gaming a terrorist nuclear attack in Alabama and war with North Korea as part of exercises Vigilant Shield and Global Lightning. Those two exercises are being joined by Global Storm and Positive Response tomorrow, all following a highly classified common Russian scenario.

In the scenario, according to internal exercise papers obtained by this washingtonpost.com blogger, "Slomonia" loses ally "Ublame" in a "domestically driven political realignment." Slomonia adapts a more aggressive foreign policy which re-ignites what the war gamers call a "mini-Cold War."

Slomonia, which in earlier game preparation was called Rusalka, is obviously Russia. The name was changed to Slomonia to obscure the identity of the country should there be a leak. Ublame is Ukraine, which ironically was earlier called Ubundi in exercise planning. I guess the possibility that World War III could begin over Ukraine is less sensitive than a 2005 nuclear war with our good friend Moscow.

The exercise scenarios begin with the Russian loss of Ukraine and a decline in relations with the west. Russia begins to mobilize in response to increasing NATO troops on its border and then it deploys long-range bombers to the Arctic and the Far East. To "punish" the West, according to the classified exercise papers, Russia begins to provide support for "old clients long abandoned," primarily the Northeast Asian country of Purple (aka North Kraal in early exercise papers), which is North Korea.

During a 60 day "time warp" mid-way in the exercise scenario to fast forward to the really fun nuclear war, North Korea and Russia prepare to nuke the United States with missiles and bombers. The war gamers call the eventual Russian bomber attack on Alaska and the continental United States "non-doctrinal," that is, physically impossible and implausible, but necessary in the war game in order to practice air intercepts and achieve victory for the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD).

Herein lies the corrupt nature of this kind of war gaming. Everything but the kitchen sink is thrown in to improve the "play" and stress the days of the hundreds of gamers -- a decline in U.S.-Russian relations, war with North Korea, ballistic missile defenses, terrorist attacks, cyber warfare, evacuation of Washington. The "simultaneous" Armageddons become what military wags often call a "self-licking ice cream cone," that is, self-indulgent confirmation of questionable assumptions. The real effect of all of this is merely to justify weapons, levels of spending, and the policies that are being pursued, not to "test" them.

It isn't as if a return to the Cold War isn't possible with Russia; it is. Thoughout the Clinton and Bush administrations though, United States national policy has been to intentionally ignore thousands of Russian nuclear weapons as a threat and accept that democracy and stability in the former core of the Soviet Union is more or less permanent. It is a risk, but a national decision was taken not to just mindlessly pursue the old "to have peace prepare for war" adage. When it comes to Russia, there is a clear recognition that there are things that can be done on a day-to-day basis to create stability and reduce mistrust and that these things all just as valuable as maintaining missiles on 30 minute alert.

So Russia with thousands of nuclear weapons is not a threat because the U.S. national security strategy says it is not, whereas comparatively puny North Korea and Iran are threats? Again, it isn't as if North Korea and Iran don't mean the United States harm, it is just that in order to justify our over-abundance of strategic nuclear weapons, ballistic missile defenses, and even conventional military might, war gamers have to invent capabilities to fit.

The Slomonian exercise scenarios being used for Vigilant Shield-Global Lightning-Global Storm-Positive Response are by no means unique to the Bush administration. In fact, the only thing surprising about these exercises is that the country being used to justify all of this isn't China. But then Russia is the only country other than the United States that has more than a few hundred nuclear weapons. Russia is thus the only justification for the United States to continue to possess thousands of its own nuclear weapons and do nothing to continue to pursue the process of disarmament.

These days, Pentagon big thinkers are desperately seeking to frame China as the future threat, the "peer competitor" that will keep the U.S. military afloat after Iraq. Chinese intentions towards the United States aren't important in this process. Instead, war planners posit economic and demographic trends to show that China will have increased resources to build up its nuclear might and pursue military domination some time in the future. By using Russian forces in war games, future and much more robust Chinese capabilities can be tested.

And tested they are. The Slomonia exercises include not just nuclear warfare and ballistic missile defenses, but also "full spectrum" U.S. information and special operations -- computer network attack and exploitation, directed energy attacks, disablement of Russian satellites and missiles --- to test future methods of perfecting a disarming first strike capability.

Russia loses. "Adaptive" U.S. nuclear war planning, American technological superiority, ballistic missile defenses, cyber warfare, and Top Secret U.S. methods all prevail. On November 10, Moscow is scheduled to "sue for peace," no muss, no fuss.

By William M. Arkin | October 31, 2005; 11:06 AM ET | Category: Code Name of the Week, War Games Previous: Libby's Resignation:


i wish this would happen in my life time, an 16 but that is not an exception. i must see the power that russia has in my life time i must see the world cruble on the super powers, i must see the U.S. take on countries it's on size, i must see russia exceed the U.s, i must see every nation bow down to the next great nation, i must see the power of the atomic bomb, i must live, i must see "WORLD WAR III."

Posted by: great | Oct 31, 2005 7:18:50 PM

Mr. Arkin, does a war game command this much of your column? You should know war games have been done for hundreds of years and a huge one between Russia and China was just completed where they used 10's of thousands of troops and practiced attacking stand-ins for American aircraft carriers. Why do you spend this kind of high visibility column space insinuating American Stranglovian tendencies, when America was the victim of a far larger war game scenario, not 2 months ago.

If anyone is a unreconstructed Cold Warrior, I think its one William Arkin.

One final point Mr. Arkin. Last I counted, there were more countries in 2005 with Nuclear weapons than in 2004. Probably in 2006 there will be more than in 2005. The wheel continues to turn. Presumably you seek some future time when the USA disposes of its thousands of war heads while the rest of the world re-arms, aided by a underground proliferation networks run by North Korea, Pakistan, Iran, Russia and China? Come to think of it, maybe its a blessing you are confined to column space rather than decision space.

Posted by: Can'tBelieveIt | Oct 31, 2005 6:49:58 PM

Right. This is definitely an attention grabber. What about "Joshua still playing" or something.

Posted by: El Tonno | Oct 31, 2005 4:37:15 PM

A question for Mr Arkin:

Why is no one talking about the real issue in the Valerie Plame affair--i.e., Why has Scooter Libby held an extremely sensitive job and high level clearances in the White House for the past two years??

The Ignorant news media seems to think that investigations of SCI security breaches are handled by two year long grand jury investigations --they are not.

You know how SCI info is handled. What's going on? This Valerie Plame "investigation" makes no sense.

Exposure of a covert CIA agent should have kicked off a security investigation. The list of people who could have revealed that information should have been short. Anyone having SCI clearances--including Dick Cheney -- who had knowledge that Libby might had leaked Valerie Plame's name had an affirmative OBLIGATION to report that adverse info to security officers. In the case of WHite House and CIA employees, they stood to lose their own clearances if they failed to report adverse info on Libby.

It should have taken no more than 2-3 weeks to pinpoint Libby and to have demanded that he take a polygraph.

I can see why Fitzgerald's long legal investigation was needed to pursue a criminal prosecution -- but investigating and resolving breaches of security do NOT follow those leisurely processes nor are security investigations constrained by legal rules which govern criminal prosecutions.

Security clearances can be revoked anytime there is a question whether someone is trustworthy. No one has a right to the clearances. While one is presumed innocent until proven guilty in criminal prosecutions, the opposite rule is often followed when it comes to keeping security clearances -- the holder is required to show that he should continue to be trusted with SCI info.

One may refuse to answer questions in a criminal case -- one is REQUIRED to answer questions under a polygraph to keep security clearances. I can see how Libby could have taken the Fifth and refused to take a polygraph. But at that point --say 1 month after Valerie Plame's name was revealed -- he should have had his security clearances revoked and been escorted out of the WHite House --absent a direct intervention by the President. Why did that NOT happen 2 years ago??

On the other hand, if the President adjudicated the case and decided that Libby had simply made a mistake, then why was the Fitzgerald investigation continued?

The only way this Fitzgerald process make sense to me is if the White House is concerned that Libby has done something else other than outing Mrs Wilson, he has refused to cooperate/provide info about the other matter, and they are using this criminal prosecution as a way to squeeze him to answer questions/cooperate in the investigation of the other matter. But if they had questions about his trustworthiness, they would not have left him in the White House all this time --even under intense surveillance -- would they?


Posted by: Don Williams | Oct 31, 2005 3:13:52 PM

Actually, I think what is "stupid" is pursuing a psychopathic foreign policy that encourages Russia to consider another Cold War -- in self defense.

And the mainstream media headlines that irritate me are the ones that ignore our real problems/issues in favor of the latest from the Michael Jackson trial.

Posted by: Don Williams | Oct 31, 2005 3:03:31 PM

Arkin:

Stop playing with reality and promoting these 'games' of yours. It will only lead to tensions between the West and Russia. Fool.

VH

Posted by: Vladimir Helsinkov | Oct 31, 2005 3:00:53 PM

Eisenhower warned us to be careful of the military-industrial complex. perhaps now it is too late, and the real armageddon, the one where Jesus comes back will in effect be here, and the main cause? american military-industrial power-hungry, money-making corporations and politicians.

Posted by: Dan Dubei | Oct 31, 2005 2:58:59 PM

Gentlemen:

I find it offensive for you to use a headline like"Russia to Nuke U.S." What are you trying to do stir up war? We glorify war enough without you trying to agitate anymore.

It is stupid to use such headlines. Why do you do it?

Posted by: James W. Wilder | Oct 31, 2005 2:44:56 PM


More Madness - Alabama Gets the Bomb

WebEarly Warning William M. Arkin on National and Homeland Security Nuclear War in ... Alabama

Code Name of the Week: Global Lightning

When Alabama gets the bomb... I don't know about you, but when I was growing up, Tom Lehrer's song "Who's Next" always brought a smile to my face.

Next month, Alabama gets the bomb. Well, Alabama gets bombed.

It's North Korea who's next. They get nuked.

It's all part of a classified military exercise slated to begin November 1, an exercise that, with the inclusion of North Korea and a terrorist attack in the United States, suggests up-to-the-minute relevance. In truth, though, the exercise replays the same tired Cold War global nuclear war game that has been the bread and butter of the U.S. military for decades.

The dastardly country of Purple, or maybe it's a terrorist organization aligned with Purple -- the script doesn't say for sure -- detonates a radiological dispersal device (or "dirty" nuclear bomb) onboard a merchant ship located on the Mobile waterfront. The President is in Mobile, leading a summit of world leaders addressing a tense escalation of global tensions.


The Alabama nuclear "event" kicks off the scenario for Vigilant Shield, a U.S. Northern Command (NORTHCOM) exercise that is one in a series of national military exercises scheduled for the first ten days of November. The nuclear warfare component of these exercises -- called Global Lightning, and sponsored by U.S. Strategic Command (STRATCOM) in Omaha -- runs at the same time and will rehearse a nuclear war with North Korea.

In the exercise, Purple is a Northeast Asian nation thinly veiled as North Korea.

According to military documents and sources involved in the classified scenario writing for Vigilant Shield and Global Lightning, North Korea, which is posited to possess nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles to deliver them, becomes embroiled in the worldwide crisis, eventually launching a first strike attack against the United States with a number of intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs).

Though Vigilant Shield is officially a "homeland security" exercise, the focus is military and federal government "consequence management" after spectacular terrorist and North Korea nuclear strikes, and the resulting, not kidding, global nuclear war.

I've already written about how NORTHCOM will do just about anything to be relevant to the "global war on terrorism" and not dirty itself in the pedestrian missions associated with natural disasters.

Scratch the surface of Vigilant Shield and it's clear that fighting the war on terrorism domestically is only fun when it is part of the senior varsity of administration interest: global nuclear war. In addition to the North Korean missile attack, as best I can piece together, the Vigilant Shield scenario includes the administration and Rumsfeld favorite ballistic missile defenses (trying to) shoot down incoming missiles, implementation of continuity of operations plans and evacuation to alternative command posts, mobilization of the 18-wheeler mobile command center to test emergency Presidential communications, the intercept of Soviet-like long-range bombers entering U.S. and Canadian airspace, and military "consequence management" after missiles land on Washington. There are a few modern day twists -- terrorist attacks, cyber warfare or what the military calls "information operations."

Global Lightning practices the American nuclear retaliation after Vigilant Shield. This year's is the second of an annual exercise series allowing the Omaha-based command to flex bigger muscles assigned by President Bush. In 2003, the President assigned STRATCOM overarching responsibility for missile defenses, "strategic" information warfare in support of national operations, and global strike missions -- nuclear and conventional.

Global Lightning exercises, according to STRATCOM documents, practices "nuclear combat readiness, proficiency and training" and "provides a bridging exercise between nuclear and non-nuclear forces." In other words, it practices escalation from conventional to nuclear war and implementation of the Bush administration's new global strike war plan, named CONPLAN 8022.

When the first Global Lightning was held in October 2004, The Shreveport Times reported B-52 bombers from nearby Barksdale air force base practicing minimum-interval take-offs, where 13 bombers took off within a minute or less of one another.

Emergency launches of bombers held on 24/7 alert were once quite common during the Cold War, but ever since the first Iraq war in 1991, when bombers were enlisted as the centerpiece of U.S. conventional bombing, the practice of "flushing" bombers to fight make believe nuclear wars became more and more infrequent.

Now the Bush administration has revived the old practice, building the capacity for the military to respond to an instant order to conduct a preemptive strike.

(Next week, no kidding: How Ukraine Starts World War III)

By William M. Arkin | October 21, 2005; 12:26 PM ET | Category: Code Name of the Week, Nuclear Weapons


Informant: FoE Sydney - Nuclear Campaign
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