10
Sep
2005

Solar Activity Intense Explosive Chaos, Hurricanes A Possible Threat

BULLETIN ITEM: Solar Weather Alert: Very Bad News: Solar Activity Intense Explosive Chaos, Hurricanes A Possible Threat

[ECB, Black Canyon City Arizona, September 10, 2005, 06:35:00 UTC] Sunspots increased by approximately 65%, from 36 on September 8 to 59 as of September 9 (PST) amidst several major explosions and flares which are at near record-levels in energy.

DATE Flux Sunspots Area
2005 09 07 100 11 10
2005 09 08 94 36 550
2005 09 09 99 59 1450

The sudden increase in the number of Sunspots resulted from rotation of a huge active site (798) of numerous sunspots to a position which could be observed from the Earth.

At the moment, conditions on the Sun (Earthside) have become intensely stormy, chaotic and unpredictable. NASA reports that" Earth-orbiting satelites have detected five //www.spaceweather.com/glossary/flareclasses.html X-class solar flares since Sept. 7th, including one X17-class monster flare." NASA also reports that as of this hour "an
//www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/#SolarRadiationStorms>S2-class
radiation storm is underway. Solar protons are streaming past Earth at nearly light speed. These particles were accelerated toward us by the recent explosions at sunspot 798." The Fluxgate Monitor in Alaska confirms this storm. It shows major disturbances in the solar wind and magnetosphere of the Earth, including a major storm as of this hour.

NASA predicts that "Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) hurled into space by the solar explosions of Sept. 7th-9th could strike glancing blows to Earth's magnetic field this weekend." This will likely cause intense auroras this weekend. NASA also predicts "a 75% chance of more X-flares during the next 24 hours, possibly causing radio blackouts and radiation storms," and "up to an 80% probability of M-Class Flares during the next 48% hours."

Solar conditions are now VERY FAVORABLE once again for the strengthening of hurricanes and cyclones.

On a world basis, existing storm systems and fronts ARE now likely to strengthen even more during the next 24 hours with considerable expansion in size, acceleration of movement on track, and intensity of wind. More probable than not, Hurricane Ophelia strengthened to a Category One status as a direct result of energization of the Earth's upper atmosphere from today's increase in Sunspot activity.

This is probably true for the next 48-96 hours, but conditions could change in as little as 24 hours.

In the West Pacific, Typhoon Khanun in the Philippine Sea may increase from Category One to Category Two and will likely slam Taiwan and Eastern China with much greater force and rain than is now expected. Severe flooding is possible in a wide spread area.

In the Atlantic, Ophelia, directly as a result of yesterday and today's major increase in the Sunspot Count, is now moving much more rapidly to the North and is now expected by the National Hurricane Service to slam into Georgia and the Carolina Coasts early next week. OPHELIA SHOULD BE CONSIDERED TO BE UNPREDICTABLE AS OF THIS HOUR AND HIGHLY LIKELY TO GAIN STRENGTH, PERHAPS DEVELOPING QUICKLY INTO HURRICANE TWO OR EVEN GREATER STATUS.

If the Sunspot Count continues to rise tomorrow (September 10 PST), Ophelia could begin to move more rapidly with an increase in its windspeed and slam into the Southeastern Seaboard earlier than now expected. For the next 24 hours at least, Ophelia should be considered a HIGH THREAT POTENTIAL for doing a "Katrina", though probably in a smaller area.

Another surge in Solar Activity can be expected approximately September 15 - September 27 and this surge may produce conditions which can reproduce storms like Katrina.

Forecast For The Next 90 Days

MOST DANGEROUS WINDOWS:

September 17-27: COULD BE AS DANGEROUS AS KATRINA

October 15 - November 4: STRONGER POSSIBILITY FOR MULTIPLE OCCURRENCE OF STORMS EVEN MORE DANGEROUS THAN KATRINA.

These predictions are based on predictable surges in solar activity combined with the Global Warming Trend. Danger "Windows" are defined from generalizations made with three years of observation.

Michael Mandeville
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