The solar radiation reaching the surface of the earth is increasing

V wrote:

We are going to see huge climate changes into the near future. The polar ice caps are melting not because the greenhouse effect, but because the increasing solar radiation reaching the surface of the earth. We are into an enlightening process that takes place also in the physical world, which is good news for sungazers.

The following info is from

Judging from three papers in the May 6 issue of Science, the amount of incoming solar radiation reaching the surface of the earth has increased dramatically in the last two decades.

If we average the results of Pinker et al. and Wild et al., we get 3.55 W/m2 for the period 1985 to 2000. To this we add 2.06 W/m2 from 2000 to 2004 and get 5.61 W/m2. If we divide this by 0.6 W/m2 (the total change in greenhouse forcing from 1985 to 2004, we get 9.35. The added forcing from increased solar radiation reaching the earth's surface has contributed nearly 10 times as much energy as greenhouse changes!

Enhanced greenhouse gases are inconsequential compared to the tremendous increase in solar energy hitting the surface. Apparently few want to admit to this.

The eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, in 1991, lowered the amount of incoming solar radiation by about 1.5 W/m2 and subsequently dropped the surface temperature about a half of a degree within two years. A clear cause and effect. The rises now purported in solar radiation are several times larger than that.

If somehow we are wrong (a rare event), then greenhouse warming is over, as the sensitivity of the earth's temperature to carbon dioxide has been grossly overestimated. Believe us, we'd like to hope the latter is correct, but we have to call things in the most logical fashion.



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September 2005

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