October 10th 2005

EARTH CHANGES TV NEWSLETTER

Part – I Has The Magnetic Pole Reversal Already Begun?South Atlantic Anomaly Could be First Evidence

by Mitch Battros - ECTV

This is Part I of III

In my last two interviews, one with Dr. Peter Olson, Geophysicist from Johns Hopkins University , and Dr. Nicola Scafetta, Applied Physicist from Duke University has sparked my curiosity to apply an additional direction to my published “Equation”.

Still, the Sun is no doubt the origin of all interactive play. (at least in our solar system, but this will be explained in my book “Cosmic Rain” due out late spring.). The Sun is the triggering mechanism for a causal chain reaction to what happens on our home planet. One might say for all planets…in our solar system. What I have been learning lately is what slower acting, but perhaps far more powerful effect the Sun has on the Earth’s core. What we all agree upon (myself and my distinguished guest Dr. Olson and Dr. Scafetta) is the Sun is the primary cause for our climate and weather. It is pronounced and almost instantly in active effects. But what is going on below is far more powerful but disguises in a stealthy slow moving mannerism. The old story of the frog in the slowly heating pot comes to mind.

Although most of our scientific equipment is pointed towards the sky (satellites, telescopes etc,) to measure the Sun’s activity and its effect on our magnetic field, ionosphere, stratosphere, and as of late our “weather” (see equation), not much has been disclosed or known about what lies beneath our feet. So lets take a closer look.

Equation:

Sunspots => Solar Flares => Magnetic Field Shift => Shifting Ocean and Jet Stream Currents => Extreme Weather and Human Disruption

In very much the same way as lightning strikes, so does the Earth’s highly charged core. Did you know when we think we see a lightning bolt hitting Earth; it is actually met with a matching bolt from the ground shooting upward? That’s’ right. A lightning bolt rises from the ground and meets a lightning bolt from the sky up to several hundred feet in the air. With this understanding, and upon Dr. Olson’s studies of the Earth’s core, mantle and crust, I am suggesting the solar flares, CME’s, and various space emitted charged particles, having a similar “reverse charge” in the same manner as lightning bolts. More on this later, but first let’s take a look at what is the “South Atlantic Anomaly”.

South Atlantic Anomaly

Earth is surrounded by a close-to-spherical magnetic field, the magnetosphere. According to what we know today, it is being generated by dynamo action in the Earth's interior where conducting liquid metals are kept in motion by the forces of convection (heat exchange), coriolis, and gravitation, and just as the charged windings in the coil of a dynamo generate a magnetic field when moved, these masses create the Earth's magnetic field. Without it, our compasses wouldn't work, there would be no northern lights (auroras), and it protects us from space radiation by deflecting high energy particles from deep space or by capturing them in the so-called Van Allen Belts. Of these, discovered by the first US satellite, Explorer 1, in 1958, there are two, one closer, the other farther away, and both surround the Earth like a doughnut.

Unfortunately, at a certain location over the South Atlantic Ocean, off the coast of Brazil, the shielding effect of the magnetosphere is not quite spherical but shows an unusual distortion, which scientists explain as a result of the eccentric displacement of the center of the magnetic field from the geographical center of the Earth (by 280 miles) as well as the displacement between the magnetic and geographic poles of Earth. This is to say Magnetic North is not consistent with Geographical North. At times this area becomes very unstable and “bounces” kilometers apart. But there is more to this “unpredictable” monolithic anomaly than many in the science community had ever known…until now.

V wrote:

We are going to see huge climate changes into the near future. The polar ice caps are melting not because the greenhouse effect, but because the increasing solar radiation reaching the surface of the earth. We are into an enlightening process that takes place also in the physical world, which is good news for sungazers.

The following info is from
http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2005/05/10/global-warming-something-new-under-the-sun/

Judging from three papers in the May 6 issue of Science, the amount of incoming solar radiation reaching the surface of the earth has increased dramatically in the last two decades.

If we average the results of Pinker et al. and Wild et al., we get 3.55 W/m2 for the period 1985 to 2000. To this we add 2.06 W/m2 from 2000 to 2004 and get 5.61 W/m2. If we divide this by 0.6 W/m2 (the total change in greenhouse forcing from 1985 to 2004, we get 9.35. The added forcing from increased solar radiation reaching the earth's surface has contributed nearly 10 times as much energy as greenhouse changes!

Enhanced greenhouse gases are inconsequential compared to the tremendous increase in solar energy hitting the surface. Apparently few want to admit to this.

The eruption of Mt. Pinatubo, in 1991, lowered the amount of incoming solar radiation by about 1.5 W/m2 and subsequently dropped the surface temperature about a half of a degree within two years. A clear cause and effect. The rises now purported in solar radiation are several times larger than that.

If somehow we are wrong (a rare event), then greenhouse warming is over, as the sensitivity of the earth's temperature to carbon dioxide has been grossly overestimated. Believe us, we'd like to hope the latter is correct, but we have to call things in the most logical fashion.


Petre

The sun is doing it again. On September 7th there was an X-17 solar flare followed by eight more x-class flares. It's remarkable because the sun is nearly at solar minimum.

I'm starting to relate these huge solar eruptions with emotional experiences. I believe we are not independent of these flares are a response and a mirror to human consciousness and emotional activity and in turn the response has an effect on humanity.

http://space.com/scienceastronomy/050909_solar_flares.html
http://www.earthfiles.com/news/news.cfm?ID=985&category=Science

cobra

Sunspots Rise to 59 form 51, Flux Down to 104 from 112, Ophelia Dissolving

[ECB, Black Canyon City Arizona, September 18, 2005, 04:48:00 UTC] Sunspots rose slightly today but Flux, and solar activity continued to decline today from their high levels of the past few days. Even the the Fluxgate Monitor now confirms the improving conditions. It currently displays very few disturbances in the solar wind and magnetosphere of the Earth. This continuing drop signals the end of the Sunspot Peak for the Mercury | Jupiter Planetary Alignment. The alignment is due about the time of the Fall Equinox on September 22 and the Sunspot Peak, as is often the case, preceded the alignment by about 7-10 days.

Sunspot Counts are likely to drop again tomorrow but they may on average stay in the 30's and 40's until the middle of October when the alignment of Earth and Mars reaches its finale.

On a world basis, existing storm systems and fronts will continue to weaken during the next few days. More probable than not, Ophelia will now quickly dissolve in the Atlantic over the weekend.

This is probably true for at least the next 72 hours.

There are two Hurricanes currently active in the East Pacific but they seem destined to dissolve out at sea before encountering the Pacific Coast of Mexico

Forecast For The Next 40 Days

Phillippe - A Tropical Stormfront with winds up to 50 mph, forecasted by National Hurricane Cener to become a Hurricane

Rita - The next in line, not yet predicted for major storm status

October 15 - November 4: STRONGER POSSIBILITY FOR MULTIPLE OCCURRENCE OF STORMS EVEN MORE DANGEROUS THAN KATRINA.

These predictions are based on predictable surges in solar activity combined with the Global Warming Trend. Danger "Windows" are defined from generalizations made with three years of observation.


Best Wishes,

Michael Wells Mandeville,
The Hills of Arizona USA
at mwman@earthlink.net

September 14th 2005

EARTH CHANGES TV NEWSLETTER

CME Heading Right Towards Us; But There Have Been Larger Ones

by Mitch Battros – ECTV

A coronal mass ejection (CME) is racing toward Earth. Watch for severe geomagnetic storms to ensue. There have been much larger events in our recent and past history. This latest event comes from three X-Class flares which launched yesterday evening. It should take 24 to 48 hours to hit the Earth’s magnetic field. So it is possible to experience its effects as soon as late night/early morning.

CME Hits Earth Diagram:
http://www.earthchangestv.net/images/sunearth_01G.gif

Watch for “extreme” weather to follow, most likely in the way of straight-line winds, micro-burst, wind shears, and tornadoes. Also, sudden temperature shifts may occur.

Alerts have already been sent out to all power companies, military services, FAA (airlines), communication satellite companies, and NASA- ISS.

Solar Rain

The Earth Changes Have Begun

It all started with a simple equation…

Equation:

Sunspots => Solar Flares => Magnetic Field Shift => Shifting Ocean and Jet Stream Currents => Extreme Weather and Human Disruption (mitch battros)

September 13th 2005

EARTH CHANGES TV NEWSLETTER

Three X-Class Flares Within Last Hour

by Mitch Battros – ECTV

Three more X-Class flares have fired off within a 20 minute period. They came from sunspot region 808 formally known as 798. When sunspot regions rotate around the backside of the Sun, and if they stay in tact, it is re-numbered as it rotates around the eastern limb of the Sun. Hence formerly known region 798 is now region 808.

Three X-Class Flares: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_5mBL.html
Kp Index: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/rt_plots/kp_3d.html

Folks, I am going to do something a little different. Instead of, no, in addition to, my ongoing postings of current events, I am going to display why we should be concerned about this latest onslaught of back-to-back solar storms. I write extensively about what has happened historically, and “what could be” in my book ‘Solar Rain’.

This will be a three part article. Part I is focused on how geomagnetic storms affect our “infrastructure” and communities. Part II will be on how geomagnetic storms affect “humans and animals”. Part III will be on what is happening “now”.

Part I - Geomagnetic storms and the neighborhood you live in” – The Solar Storm that Shut Down 6 million people of Quebec, Canada

Astronomers had been tracking ‘Active Region 5395’ on the Sun when, on March 10, 1989, it suddenly belched out a huge cloud of super-hot plasma. Three days later, residents in higher latitudes enjoyed a magnificent Northern Lights display. Even people in Florida got to enjoy the show that had never been seen so far south, and went to bed on the night of March 12, awed by the display.

Around March 11, 1989, as Cycle 22 was getting underway a flare erupted (see plot of sunspot number and X-class solar flares during the last three solar cycles). Scientists saw it 8 minutes later, but the full impact was still two days away, and this one was headed straight towards where our planet would be by then. Meanwhile, the residents of Quebec were still trying to get back to normal following the worst ice-storm in Canada ’s history.

At 2:44 a.m. the next morning, stray electrical currents generated by a powerful magnetic field surged through the electrical circuits of the Hydro-Quebec control center. Giant capacitors along the 735kV lines that had been designed to absorb the spikes tried to regulate the current that ran 115% above normal, but were overwhelmed. To prevent damage, automatic breakers tripped and took them off-line. However, these had been the primary line of defense.

The entire grid was now vulnerable, and immediately things rapidly fell apart. All five lines into Montréal tripped, and a surge in load tripped the supply lines from the 9,450 MW generators at La Grande. This resulted in a sudden drop in frequency, and automatic load-shedding kicked in, but compensators could not recover from the loss of about half the system load. As each piece went off-line, the load was offloaded onto other generating plants, which also tripped out. Within 20 seconds, the entire Quebec power grid collapsed, too quick for human operators to react. Of course, generators were still spinning, ready to crank out their 21,500 MW, but they were all disconnected from those who badly needed electrical power on a frigid Canadian morning. Their current was going nowhere … and people shivered.

Sorting out the mess took nine hours, while most of Quebec was in darkness. This silent disaster disrupted the lives of six million people, yet somehow the 50 million people on the Eastern Seaboard of the U.S. remained unaffected thanks to some capacitors on the Allegheny Power Network that did their job. Long term effects were costly, as the huge oil-cooled transformers that had burned up cost millions to replace, which took months. Meanwhile Hydro-Quebec had to reroute power, and, as it had done two months earlier, purchase more expensive fossil fuel power from other companies.

Downed lines due to a co-existing ice storm began to black out parts of Eastern Ontario and Western Quebec, but the affected areas quickly linked up to form a huge area of both provinces. Pretty soon, the emergency measures unit office at Ottawa-Carleton’s municipal headquarters began to buzz. This was turning out to be no ordinary winter storm. Representatives from regional and local government, hospitals, public health, police, ambulance, fire and Red Cross assembled to closely monitor what was fast becoming a runaway situation. “No one predicted something of this magnitude,” said Merv Beckstead, Ottawa-Carleton’s chief administrative officer.

Stores had long since run out of heaters, fuel and generators, and with no respite in sight, Hydro management was forecasting system-wide disruption of up to two weeks. In hindsight, that was hopelessly optimistic. By the early hours of Thursday, January 8, the area of devastation was still widening, and the decision was taken to declare a state of emergency. This allowed regional government to apply for federal and provincial financial aid and military assistance. It also warned residents that the situation was serious and allowed for an ‘Emergency Vehicles Only’ curfew on the roads—the first time this had ever been done in the history of a region that was used to bad weather.

The story of the Hogan family was typical. Sue Hogan awoke early in the morning and smelled smoke. Her husband Dave went downstairs to check on the wood and oil furnace they had been using for backup heat during the blackout. It was ablaze, so he hollered up the stairs for everyone to get out. Their sons, Ben, 8, Adam, 13, and Gord, 15, groggily threw on some clothes and fled outside. The fire department could do nothing, and the Hogans watched as their home went up in flames. Sadly, they lost their beloved pet beagle but felt fortunate the family of five had escaped unhurt. Neighbors immediately responded with offers of lodging, food and clothing, and Sue was amazed that the community was so behind them. Such displays of caring were repeated all across Eastern Canada as random acts of kindness broke out everywhere.

For example, nine-month pregnant Tasha Geymonat and her partner Jody McKellar of Edwards were headed for Riverside Hospital at 7:32 a.m., but the icy roads were simply too dangerous to continue, even for their Chevy Blazer. They called the paramedics, and Marc Lafleur and Bill Magladry helped deliver a healthy 8 lb. 4 oz baby boy in the back of the SUV. Such acts of heroism became commonplace as shops, banks, schools, public transport and everything else without backup generators shut down.

Weeks and weeks living in an emergency shelter can fray anyone’s nerves, so area hotels slashed their rates. Cell phone companies offered free service, and restaurants offered free meals to emergency workers, as they did in New York following September 11. One grateful resident said, “A country is much more than its weather. It’s the people.” They were finding out what it meant to be Canadian.

Early Friday morning, the army arrived and brought a sense of security to the devastated area. Dressed in green fatigues, they continued to roll in and by 6 p.m., a solid base of soldiers had swelled to thousands, both regulars and reservists. They cleared debris blocking roads, provided emergency medical assistance, helped utility workers to restore power, set up fuel and food dumps, evacuated residents and went door-to-door making sure people were safe.

Sadly, the Army also had to deal with looters. The supplies pouring in from across the nation and the U.S. presented a tempting target, especially in-demand items such as portable generators, dozens of which were stolen. Some generators may have been liberated out of genuine need, but most found their way onto the black market for a profit. Others price-gouged on essentials such as batteries, flashlights and gas. And many posed as Red Cross volunteers allegedly collecting for money to run the shelters. To prevent looting, police dropped all but essential services, but many residents took matters into their own hands, standing guard over their homes with loaded rifles.

The lesson was costly but simple, and I can remember Richard Gelb, my emergency management instructor telling us in a stark and unsettling voice… “you are to convey to those you train in your future emergency management positions… It is not the fire department that is coming to save you, it is not the police department that is coming to save you, it is not the Red Cross that is coming to save you, it is not even us in emergency management that will be there for you. IT WILL BE YOUR NEIGHBOR. Now folks, it is important you convey this in your field training….. Let the people know in a major disaster the likelihood of roads being cut off are high. Of course all emergency management disciplines will immediately be enacted, but the bottom line is a coordinated neighborhood is the most likely to survive.”

It all started with a simple equation…

Equation:

Sunspots => Solar Flares => Magnetic Field Shift => Shifting Ocean and Jet Stream Currents => Extreme Weather and Human Disruption (mitch battros)

September 10th 2005

EARTH CHANGES TV NEWSLETTER

Now Up To Six X-Class Flares and Counting

by Mitch Battros – ECTV

Due to so many ‘large’ solar flares, this may be the last newsletter related to solar storms. So instead, simply go to the ECTV website for the latest posting and updates.

Within the last two hours a new X-Class flare has fired away. But there is one very important difference; now sunspot region 808 has rotated into position to cause “Earth Directed” flares and CME’s (coronal mass ejections). From this point on, and for the next 23 days, each and every flare has the potential for a glancing or direct hit to Earth.

When the charged particles hit our protective magnetic field, the magnetic field shifts as if cranking tightly on a jar top. When this occurs, it in turn, causes a shift in the jet stream, often causing it to drop down low enough to disturb weather patterns. And when this occurs, it causes ocean currents to shift.

Sun-Earth Diagram: http://www.earthchangestv.net/images/sunearth_01G.gif

Today’s X-Class Flare: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_5mBL.html

Kp Index: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/rt_plots/kp_3d.html

This is the sequence which is easily followed in my “Equation” first published back in 1997. You can read about this in Chapter 7 of ‘Solar Rain’ titled “Solar Flares, CME’s, and the Equation”. Table of Contents: http://www.earthchangestv.net/Table_of_Contents.htm

Equation:

Sunspots => Solar Flares => Magnetic Field Shift => Shifting Ocean and Jet Stream Currents => Extreme Weather and Human Disruption (mitch battros)

BULLETIN ITEM: Solar Weather Alert: Very Bad News: Solar Activity Intense Explosive Chaos, Hurricanes A Possible Threat

[ECB, Black Canyon City Arizona, September 10, 2005, 06:35:00 UTC] Sunspots increased by approximately 65%, from 36 on September 8 to 59 as of September 9 (PST) amidst several major explosions and flares which are at near record-levels in energy.

DATE Flux Sunspots Area
2005 09 07 100 11 10
2005 09 08 94 36 550
2005 09 09 99 59 1450

The sudden increase in the number of Sunspots resulted from rotation of a huge active site (798) of numerous sunspots to a position which could be observed from the Earth.

At the moment, conditions on the Sun (Earthside) have become intensely stormy, chaotic and unpredictable. NASA reports that" Earth-orbiting satelites have detected five http://www.spaceweather.com/glossary/flareclasses.html X-class solar flares since Sept. 7th, including one X17-class monster flare." NASA also reports that as of this hour "an
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/#SolarRadiationStorms>S2-class
radiation storm is underway. Solar protons are streaming past Earth at nearly light speed. These particles were accelerated toward us by the recent explosions at sunspot 798." The Fluxgate Monitor in Alaska confirms this storm. It shows major disturbances in the solar wind and magnetosphere of the Earth, including a major storm as of this hour.

NASA predicts that "Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) hurled into space by the solar explosions of Sept. 7th-9th could strike glancing blows to Earth's magnetic field this weekend." This will likely cause intense auroras this weekend. NASA also predicts "a 75% chance of more X-flares during the next 24 hours, possibly causing radio blackouts and radiation storms," and "up to an 80% probability of M-Class Flares during the next 48% hours."

Solar conditions are now VERY FAVORABLE once again for the strengthening of hurricanes and cyclones.

On a world basis, existing storm systems and fronts ARE now likely to strengthen even more during the next 24 hours with considerable expansion in size, acceleration of movement on track, and intensity of wind. More probable than not, Hurricane Ophelia strengthened to a Category One status as a direct result of energization of the Earth's upper atmosphere from today's increase in Sunspot activity.

This is probably true for the next 48-96 hours, but conditions could change in as little as 24 hours.

In the West Pacific, Typhoon Khanun in the Philippine Sea may increase from Category One to Category Two and will likely slam Taiwan and Eastern China with much greater force and rain than is now expected. Severe flooding is possible in a wide spread area.

In the Atlantic, Ophelia, directly as a result of yesterday and today's major increase in the Sunspot Count, is now moving much more rapidly to the North and is now expected by the National Hurricane Service to slam into Georgia and the Carolina Coasts early next week. OPHELIA SHOULD BE CONSIDERED TO BE UNPREDICTABLE AS OF THIS HOUR AND HIGHLY LIKELY TO GAIN STRENGTH, PERHAPS DEVELOPING QUICKLY INTO HURRICANE TWO OR EVEN GREATER STATUS.

If the Sunspot Count continues to rise tomorrow (September 10 PST), Ophelia could begin to move more rapidly with an increase in its windspeed and slam into the Southeastern Seaboard earlier than now expected. For the next 24 hours at least, Ophelia should be considered a HIGH THREAT POTENTIAL for doing a "Katrina", though probably in a smaller area.

Another surge in Solar Activity can be expected approximately September 15 - September 27 and this surge may produce conditions which can reproduce storms like Katrina.

Forecast For The Next 90 Days

MOST DANGEROUS WINDOWS:

September 17-27: COULD BE AS DANGEROUS AS KATRINA

October 15 - November 4: STRONGER POSSIBILITY FOR MULTIPLE OCCURRENCE OF STORMS EVEN MORE DANGEROUS THAN KATRINA.

These predictions are based on predictable surges in solar activity combined with the Global Warming Trend. Danger "Windows" are defined from generalizations made with three years of observation.

Michael Mandeville

EARTH CHANGES TV NEWSLETTER

by Mitch Battros – ECTV

A new X-5 Flare has blasted off from sunspot region 789, now renamed 806. This does not fare well for current tropical storms and hurricanes. I would watch hurricane “Ophelia” very closely.

Ophelia: http://www.earthchangestv.net/images/Ophelia.jpg

It looks like sunspot region 806 is going to be with us for quite a while, and with each passing day positions itself closer to a direct hit to Earth. It is currently coming around the eastern limb of the Sun, and will take about 23 days to pass.

Already we have seen “sudden” tornadoes, straight-line winds, micro-burst, and wind shears occur, and I'm afraid more are on the way.

X-5 Flare: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/rt_plots/xray_5mBL.html

Kp Index: http://www.sec.noaa.gov/rt_plots/kp_3d.html


It all started with a simple equation…

Equation:

Sunspots => Solar Flares => Magnetic Field Shift => Shifting Ocean and Jet Stream Currents => Extreme Weather and Human Disruption (mitch battros)