Critical Earthquake Safety Information

Interesting perspective.

Please read this and pass it on -- it could save your life!!


* * * * EXTRACT FROM DOUG COPP'S ARTICLE ON THE "TRIANGLE OF LIFE", Edited by Larry Linn for MAA Safety Committee brief on 4/13/04.

My name is Doug Copp. I am the Rescue Chief and Disaster Manager of the American Rescue Team International (ARTI), the world's most experienced rescue team. The information in this article will save lives in an earthquake.

I have crawled inside 875 collapsed buildings, worked with rescue teams from 60 countries, founded rescue teams in several countries, and I am a member of many rescue teams from many countries. I was the United Nations expert in Disaster Mitigation (UNX051 -UNIENET) for two years. I have worked at every major disaster in the world since 1985, except for simultaneous disasters.

In 1996 we made a film which proved my survival methodology to be correct. The Turkish Federal Government, City of Istanbul, University of Istanbul, Case Productions and ARTI cooperated to film this practical, scientific test. We collapsed a school and a home with 20 mannequins inside. Ten mannequins did "duck and cover," and ten mannequins I used in my "triangle of life" survival method. After the simulated earthquake collapse we crawled through the rubble and entered the building to film and document the results. The film, in which I practiced my survival techniques under directly observable, scientific conditions, relevant to building collapse, showed there would have been zero percent survival for those doing duck and cover. There would likely have been 100 percent survivability for people using my method of the "triangle of life." This film has been seen by millions of viewers on television in Turkey and the rest of Europe, and it was seen in the USA, Canada and Latin America on the TV program Real TV.

The first building I ever crawled inside of was a school in Mexico City during the 1985 earthquake. Every child was under their desk. Every child was crushed to the thickness of their bones. They could have survived by lying down next to their desks in the aisles. It was obscene, unnecessary and I wondered why the children were not in the aisles. I didn't at the time know that the children were told to hide under something.

Simply stated, when buildings collapse, the weight of the ceilings falling upon the objects or furniture inside crushes these objects, leaving a space or void next to them. This space is what I call the "triangle of life". The larger the object, the stronger, the less it will compact. The less the object compacts, the larger the void, the greater the probability that the person who is using this void for safety will not be injured. The next time you watch collapsed buildings, on television, count the "triangles" you see formed. They are everywhere. It is the most common shape, you will see, in a collapsed building. They are everywhere. I trained the Fire Department of Trujillo (population 750,000) in how to survive, take care of their families, and to rescue others in earthquakes.

The chief of rescue in the Trujillo Fire Department is a professor at Trujillo University. He accompanied me everywhere. He gave personal testimony: "My name is Roberto Rosales. I am Chief of Rescue in Trujillo. When I was 11 years old, I was trapped inside of a collapsed building. My entrapment occurred during the earthquake of 1972 that killed 70,000 people. I survived in the "triangle of life" that existed next to my brother's motorcycle. My friends who got under the bed and under desks were crushed to death [he gives more details, names, addresses etc.]...I am the living example of the "triangle of life". My dead friends are the example of "duck and cover".

TIPS DOUG COPP PROVIDES:

1) Everyone who simply "ducks and covers" WHEN BUILDINGS COLLAPSE is crushed to death -- Every time, without exception. People who get under objects, like desks or cars, are always crushed.

2) Cats, dogs and babies all naturally often curl up in the fetal position. You should too in an earthquake. It is a natural safety/survival instinct. You can survive in a smaller void. Get next to an object, next to a sofa, next to a large bulky object that will compress slightly but leave a void next to it.

3) Wooden buildings are the safest type of construction to be in during an earthquake. The reason is simple: the wood is flexible and moves with the force of the earthquake. If the wooden building does collapse, large survival voids are created. Also, the wooden building has less concentrated, crushing weight. Brick buildings will break into individual bricks. Bricks will cause many injuries but less squashed bodies than concrete slabs.

4) If you are in bed during the night and an earthquake occurs, simply roll off the bed. A safe void will exist around the bed. Hotels can achieve a much greater survival rate in earthquakes, simply by posting a sign on the back of the door of every room, telling occupants to lie down on the floor, next to the bottom of the bed during an earthquake.

5) If an earthquake happens while you are watching television and you cannot easily escape by getting out the door or window, then lie down and curl up in the fetal position next to a sofa, or large chair.

6) Everybody who gets under a doorway when buildings collapse is killed. How? If you stand under a doorway and the doorjamb falls forward or backward you will be crushed by the ceiling above. If the door jam falls sideways you will be cut in half by the doorway. In either case, you will be killed!

7) Never go to the stairs. The stairs have a different "moment of frequency" (they swing separately from the main part of the building).The stairs and remainder of the building continuously bump into each other until structural failure of the stairs takes place. The people who get on stairs before they fail are chopped up by the stair treads. They are horribly mutilated. Even if the building doesn'tt collapse, stay away from the stairs. The stairs are a likely part of the building to be damaged. Even if the stairs are not collapsed by the earthquake, they may collapse later when overloaded by screaming, fleeing people. They should always be checked for safety, even when the rest of the building is not damaged.

8) Get Near the Outer Walls Of Buildings Or Outside Of Them If Possible - It is much better to be near the outside of the building rather than the interior. The farther inside you are from the outside perimeter of the building the greater the probability that your escape route will be blocked;

9) People inside of their vehicles are crushed when the road above falls in an earthquake and crushes their vehicles; which is exactly what happened with the slabs between the decks of the Nimitz Freeway. The victims of the San Francisco earthquake all stayed inside of their vehicles. They were all killed. They could have easily survived by getting out and sitting or lying next to their vehicles, says the author. Everyone killed would have survived if they had been able to get out of their cars and sit or lie next to them. All the crushed cars had voids 3 feet high next to them, except for the cars that had columns fall directly across them.

10) I discovered, while crawling inside of collapsed newspaper offices and other offices with a lot of paper, that paper does not compact. Large voids are found surrounding stacks of paper.


Be Well and Prosper,

Chuck

Phone 714/203-0037
Fax ( 309 ) 273-9432


Informant: V

Goddard Space Flight Center
August 2, 2004

http://www.gsfc.nasa.gov/topstory/2004/0715glacierquake.html


Informant: NHNE

NASA Just Released Study Connecting Solar Warming with Earthquakes (and volcanoes)...08/03/04

by Mitch Battros - ECTV

Although it is not mentioned in yesterdays NASA release, I would add "volcanoes" to the 'cause-effect' scenario. As you witnessed in yesterday's ECTV breaking news release, several volcanoes have escalated to code "yellow" in the last week. All this occurred at the exact same time-linked means to the Sun's sudden and unexpected surge.

Equation:
Sunspots => Solar Flares => Magnetic Field Shift => Shifting Ocean and Jet Stream Currents => Extreme Weather and Human Disruption (mitch battros)

In the article titled "More Than Just Mount Spurr Ready to Rumble
http://www.earthchangestv.com/secure/2004/article_2937.php ", you will see elevated levels of seismicity continue to be recorded at Mount Spurr volcano. Approximately 10-20 earthquakes have been recorded daily beneath the summit of Mount Spurr. This level of activity has remained at a constant rate for the last several weeks.

Spurr volcano is an ice- and snow-covered stratovolcano located on the west side of Cook Inlet. The only historical eruptions in 1953 and 1992 occurred at the Crater Peak flank vent located 3.5 km (2 mi) south of the Spurr summit. These eruptions were explosive, brief in duration, and produced towering columns of ash that rose up to 20 km (65,000 ft) above sea level.

In a new study, NASA and United States Geological Survey (USGS) scientists found that retreating glaciers in southern Alaska may be opening the way for future earthquakes.

The study examined the likelihood of increased earthquake activity in southern Alaska as a result of rapidly melting glaciers. As glaciers melt they lighten the load on the Earth's crust. Tectonic plates, that are mobile pieces of the Earth's crust, can then move more freely. The study appears in the July issue of the Journal of Global and Planetary Change.

Jeanne Sauber of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md., and Bruce Molnia, a research geologist at USGS, Reston, Va., used NASA satellite and global positioning system receivers, as well as computer models, to study movements of Earth's plates and shrinking glaciers in the area.

"Historically, when big ice masses started to retreat, the number of earthquakes increased," Sauber said. "More than 10,000 years ago, at the end of the great ice age, big earthquakes occurred in Scandinavia as the large glaciers began to melt. In Canada, many more moderate earthquakes occurred as ice sheets melted there," she added.

Southern Alaskan glaciers are very sensitive to climate change, Sauber added. Many glaciers have shrunk or disappeared over the last 100 years. The trend, which appears to be accelerating, seems to be caused by higher temperatures and changes in precipitation. In southern Alaska, a tectonic plate under the Pacific Ocean is pushing into the coast, which creates very steep mountains. The high mountains and heavy precipitation are critical for glacier formation. The colliding plates create a great deal of pressure that builds up, and eventually is relieved by earthquakes.

The weight of a large glacier on top of these active earthquake areas can help keep things stable. But, as the glaciers melt and their load on the plate lessens, there is a greater likelihood of an earthquake happening to relieve the large strain underneath. Even though shrinking glaciers make it easier for earthquakes to occur, the forcing together of tectonic plates is the main reason behind major earthquakes. The researchers believe that a 1979 earthquake in southern Alaska, called the St. Elias earthquake, was promoted by wasting glaciers in the area. The earthquake had a magnitude of 7.2 on the Richter scale.

Along the fault zone, in the region of the St. Elias earthquake, pressure from the Pacific plate sliding under the continental plate had built up since 1899 when previous earthquakes occurred. Between 1899 and 1979, many glaciers near the fault zone thinned by hundreds of meters and some completely disappeared. Photographs of these glaciers, many taken by Molnia during the last 30 years, were used to identify details within areas of greatest ice loss.

Field measurements were also used to determine how much the glacier's ice thickness changed since the late 19th century. The researchers estimated the volume of ice that melted and then calculated how much instability the loss of ice may have caused. They found the loss of ice would have been enough to stimulate the 1979 earthquake.

Along with global positioning system measurements made by Sauber and Molnia a number of NASA satellites were used to document glacier variability. Data from Landsat-7 and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) were used to study glacier extent and topography. Currently, NASA's ICESat satellite is being used to measure how the glacier thicknesses are changing.

"In the future, in areas like Alaska where earthquakes occur and glaciers are changing, their relationship must be considered to better assess earthquake hazard, and our satellite assets are allowing us to do this by tracking the changes in extent and volume of the ice, and movement of the Earth," Sauber said.

May 1, 2004

http://www.usgs.gov/

This coming Sunday and Monday nights (may 2, 3), NBC will be airing a mini-series "10.5" about a fictional earthquake storm that consumes the west coast. To quote the A.P. wire story "An upcoming TV miniseries about an impossibly large earthquake that strikes the West Coast has left seismic experts shaking their heads at what they called gross inaccuracies."

Lucy Jones was quoted in the L.A. Times as saying "The production is blatantly inconsistent with everything we know about earthquakes. It's a complete science fantasy, but as long as people know that nothing about it could be true, they can sit back and enjoy it."

Media interest in scientist's view of this production is building, and should you be asked to comment on the movie or the underlying premise, the USGS Office of Communications has developed two new informational products which may be of some use in the coming days and weeks. Each focuses on what we're calling "mega-quakes." Both encourage readers to separate science facts from the fictional (some will say fantasy) accounts provided in an upcoming television miniseries. They also encourage readers to plan and prepare for the real hazards they face. Both have been extensively reviewed in the Earthquake Hazards Program and should be considered good messages to use if you are asked about the mini-series. Both are linked off the main USGS web page and the main earthquake website.

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/bytopic/megaquakes.html

http://earthquake.usgs.gov/bytopic/megaqk_facts_fantasy.html

Please distribute these links as widely as possible! Please help us get the information out to our friends, cooperators, research partners and others. If you can take a moment and forward this to at least three people outside the Survey who may want or need this information in the coming weeks, that will go a long way to spreading the messages about using good science for decision making and preparing personally for hazards. Encourage your contacts to forward the links on, post the links on their webpages, refer to them as needed and/or to utilize the information internally.

If you have any questions or comments, please don't hesitate to call or email Butch Kinerney, Public Affairs Specialist, USGS Office of
Communications, 703-648-4732 or <bkinerney@usgs.gov>

Informant: NHNE

PREVIOUS NHNE NEWS LIST ARTICLE:

NBC'S QUAKE MINISERIES 'COMPLETE SCIENCE FANTASY':
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/nhnenews/message/7076

By Benjamin Spillman
The Desert Sun
April 14th, 2004

http://www.thedesertsun.com/news/stories2004/local/20040414014648.shtml

It's tough to fault seismologists for earthquakes that rocked the Los Angeles basin in 1994 and the Bay Area in 1989.

But the group of researchers who in both years held conferences near those memorable temblors are now in Palm Springs -- and some are predicting a major quake along the desert's slice of the San Andreas.

The expectation that the southern portion of the famous fault is likely to rupture is based on more than a scheduling quirk or the fact that this is Earthquake Preparedness Month.

But the annual conference of the Seismological Society of America comes at a time when earthquake prediction is a hot topic in the field.

The conference, described by an organizer as an event "for the real purists" of seismology, includes a highly anticipated forum with one forecaster who is predicting a 6.4 magnitude or greater quake in the desert by Sept. 5.

Another researcher will present data he says indicates the San Andreas fault is set to enter a period of especially frequent and more intense shaking.

"It seems perfect," said University of Oregon professor Ray Weldon of the conference location. "That is going to be about the center of the rupture if we are all right."

Weldon will speak today at the event about data he and student researchers have spent 18 years gathering from the San Andreas fault near Wrightwood.

They say data from the site shows the fault has had varying levels of stress in the past 1,500 years. Today, the fault shows high levels of stress, suggesting a period of strain release, via earthquakes, is near, he said.

The research generally applies along the fault from about Palmdale to the Salton Sea.

Although Weldon doesn't offer a quake prediction per se, he said the work complements a prediction by Russian scientist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, the UCLA researcher forecasting the 6.4 magnitude or greater quake in the desert.

"You could consider that support," Weldon said. "But I don't lend any insight or support to a window of time."

The Keilis-Borok earthquake prediction window has been a major topic of conversation among seismologists this year.

Keilis-Borok and his team used a mathematical formula based on past seismic activity to predict a temblor somewhere in an approximately 12,000 square-mile swath of desert that includes the Coachella Valley.

"Even two years back it was practically a dirty word to say earthquake prediction," said Nancy Sauer, a conference organizer.

The buzz around predictions this year is reminiscent of earlier enthusiasm for earthquake forecasting in the late 1970s and early 1980s, said John McRaney, associate director of the Southern California Earthquake Center.

But for the most part those efforts fizzled, McRaney said.

"It was so unsuccessful Š people sort of shied away for about 20 years," he said.

Rich Eisner, manager of earthquake programs for the California Office of Emergency Services, recalls trekking to the tiny California town of Parkfield around 1988 in response to a high-profile earthquake prediction.

Parkfield, population 37, was then known for its proximity to the site of the car accident that killed actor James Dean, Eisner said.

However, when researchers predicted a major temblor would occur in the area within a three-day window, scientists and media flocked to the area, he said.

"It became an opportunity to catch the earthquake," Eisner said. "Most of the time earthquakes occur and the instruments are in the wrong location."

The quake never materialized, but Parkfield emerged with the self-proclaimed title "earthquake capital of the world" and the Office of Emergency Services still has an earthquake response plan it formed around the time of the old prediction.

"From our standpoint, it was a productive and successful exercise," Eisner said.

Now, with Keilis-Borok scheduled to speak Thursday afternoon, the one-time dirty word could be the highlight of the society's conference, an event they've held almost every year since 1907.

"There is something going on," Sauer said. "People are at least willing to entertain the idea. It is not seen so much as junk science."

Keilis-Borok isn't talking about his work right now because he wants it to appear in a journal that discourages researchers from speaking to the press before publication of a scientific article.

The conference, which was scheduled more than a year before the desert quake prediction, represents a confluence of an opportunity to listen directly to Keilis-Borok at a location well within his prediction zone.

"Everyone is talking about it," said Lisa Grant, a University of California, Irvine geologist who will attend the conference. "Earthquake prediction is the holy grail of earthquake science."


Informant: NHNE

KTVU.com / Associated Press
April 1, 2004

http://www.ktvu.com/news/2968506/detail.html

LOS ANGELES -- A state earthquake council has given a qualified endorsement to a prediction by a group of scientists who believe that a temblor of magnitude-6.4 or greater will occur in the Southern California desert sometime in the next five months.

The California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council, a group of eight scientists selected by the state Office of Emergency Services, said it considers the new prediction by the scientists to be "a legitimate approach in earthquake prediction research."

Despite its support the panel noted in a report that "the physical basis for the prediction has not been substantiated."

The team of scientists at the University of California, Los Angeles, predict that a quake will occur within a 12,000-square-mile area east of Los Angeles by Sept. 5. The zone includes a large swath of the Mojave Desert, the Coachella Valley, the Imperial Valley and eastern San Diego County.

The area was the location of the magnitude-7.3 Landers earthquake in 1992 and the 7.1 Hector Mine quake in 1999.

The zone is so seismically active that the council noted in its report that the chances of an earthquake of at least magnitude-6.4 occurring randomly in the area sometime before the Sept. 5 deadline is about 10 percent.

The council concluded that the results do not warrant any special public policy actions in California. Such actions could include warnings to the public or alerts issued to utilities to help them prevent disruptions in service.

The scientists piqued interest after they forecast the magnitude-6.5 San Simeon quake in December and the magnitude-8.1 quake last year off Japan's Hokkaido island. In both cases, the group set wide parameters in place and time.

The team bases its predictions on long chains of small earthquakes recorded in the area.

"In the vicinity of each such chain, we look backward and see its history over the preceding years -- whether our candidate (for an earthquake) was preceded by certain seismicity patterns," said lead team scientist Vladimir Keilis-Borok. "If yes, we accept the candidate as a short-term precursor and start a nine-month alarm."


Informant: NHNE

March 23, 2004 7PM CST special emergency update ... word just came in from a private contact that there will be a major news announcement tonight regarding Yellowstone National Park ... to be released by one of the major networks ... initial UNCONFIRMED reports indicate that the volcanic bubble under Yellowstone's basin has raised over 100 feet in the past day and there are indications it is ready to blow ... i repeat these are UNCONFIRMED reports that have come to me through what i consider reliable sources and therefore am posting so you can watch for the official announcement ... if this is true then it is clear this has been known about for some time and the USGS page is as we have said a total misinformation site about the seriousness of Yellowstone and the evacuation preparations that should have been underway LONG ago ... jim mccanney

http://www.jmccanneyscience.com/

Informant: Ronda Zeoli

--------

Various 'volcanic' gasses escaping into the atmosphere, a precursor to major volcanic eruption, have been documented as lethal to local/indigenous wildlife.

Recent animal deaths in the Yellowstone area may be due to these such gasses.

Pray that it doesn't erupt anytime soon!

'Thar she blows!'

Tim Edwards

This one has just a bit too much imagination in it.
First, the elk deaths have been solved.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&cid=1894&e=1&u=/ap/20040322/ap_on_sc/elk_deaths

03/21/04
by Mitch Battros (ECTV)

Folks, this will be a mix of science and good old intuition. Something just does not quite feel right in the states of Utah and Wyoming.

First the science. There have now been four earthquakes in two days in an area that rarely sees earthquakes at all. On March 18th a 3.3 mag and a 2.4 magnitude hit in two 'separate' locations in Utah. Then on March 19th, two 3.1 magnitude quakes hit in the exact same area.

Please note: As I understand it, the odds of two exact measurement quakes to hit in the same area is almost unheard of. The usual is a larger 'primary' quake, and then an 'aftershock'. Most often the primary quake is the largest, follow by a smaller aftershock. But sometimes the 'aftershock' can be larger. In this case, the USGS is showing the "exact" same magnitude for two separate events. A likely reason for this may be due to it not being a "natural quake" at all. Perhaps it is "man made".

I would also like to bring your attention to the fact the EMSC seismology reporting center, is not posting most of the US quakes now. This began at the exact time I disclosed through my investigation of the USGS omissions. Is this just a coincidence?

So what would make "man made" seismic events? Most likely it would be "tunnels". But why? This is were I switch hats from the scientific field, to strictly conjecture, or in simply terms, a good old "hunch".

I have become untrusting of our government reporting centers. Yes, specifically the USGS. As you know from my ongoing investigation regarding the "non-reporting" by the USGS regarding the 5.3 mag. event which occurred on Feb. 6th, and was followed by four more smaller quakes in a 300 mile radius. It was at that time, most of us heard for the first time, some of these quakes were made by mine-blast, mine collapse, or "tunneling". But why, and why now? Then right on the heels of these events, we have the mysterious death of 300 "healthy" elk, who had become "paralyzed" and later died from asphyxiation.

Due to the suspicious nature of current events, I am making last Tuesday's interview with Tom Reed of the Wyoming Game and Fish Department available to everyone. We covered many areas related to the strange elk deaths. I asked him about gases such as 'sulfur' and 'methane', about natural toxins in the area, about a connection between seismic events and the deaths. I asked about the secret undergound biological testing center north of Yellowstone. NWF (National Wildlife Federation) lately has been zeroing in on a mysterious research lab near the north boundary of Yellowstone National Park that the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has been developing with a quiet diffidence that can only be described as secretive.
NWF Article: http://www.earthchangestv.com/secure/2004/article_126.php

Tom Reed - Wyoming Game and Fish Dept. spokesmen (45 min's) Note: I expect for this to be busy. Keep trying.
http://www.earthchangestv.net/Audio/tomreed31604.mp3

Also, I would once again like to bring your attention to the article titled " Project 'Wormwood' Is For Real". For those that are not familiar with the term "wormwood", it is a biblical announcement telling of what is believed to be an asteroid or comet on a collision course with Earth. The Vatican has been monitoring this event for decades, and have the latest state-of-the-art telescopes that are second to none. And yes, I mean NASA and US Naval Observatory.

This is not woo-woo hooky poky. Unfortunately, with the many wacko's on the internet and a few radio programs spouting ridiculous and even fraudulent material, some of which had to legally proclaim their statements as "entertainment", have now made it more difficult for those of us who wish to discern fact from fiction. To those of you who fit this description I say to you, "play time is over".
Wormwood: http://www.earthchangestv.com/secure/2004/article_201.php


Informant: Pam