...But this election is not primarily about Kerry. One last lesson from U.S. presidential history: When an incumbent runs for re-election, the vote is more a referendum on him than a judgment on his challenger. Do voters want to give this president another four years or not? Bush is running against himself in November, and thanks to Iraq, that's a losing proposition. As with McCarthy, the dawn was slow in coming, but the American middle is finally waking up.

And George W. Bush is going down.

http://www.tompaine.com/articles/a_bush_referendum.php