25
Dez
2005

Ohio's exit polls are more than consistent with vote miscounts

NEDA is still working on our Ohio exit poll analysis which shows clearly that Ohio's exit polls are more than consistent with vote miscounts - if Ohio's exit poll discrepancies were caused by vote miscounts, they look very much like they were outcome-altering.

In other words, Ohio exit poll data is SCREAMING outcome-altering vote miscounts. However, the Ohio analysis is time consuming and tedious because

1. there is not one complete data set because Mitofsky did not release sample sizes with the Election Science Institute (ESI) data set, and the raw survey data he released to the U of Michigan does not include vote counts, so our data has to be hobbled together from two sources, and the analysis tried and tested in several ways, and

2. we are doing it manually in spreadsheets rather than with programs. this type of analysis is not easy to accomplish using spreadsheets.

In the future, now that we've devised the analysis, it could be programmed automatically and we recommend, and I believe candidates will agree after seeing the Ohio exit poll analysis, that no candidate should concede or be sworn into office without first obtaining and analyzing their election and exit poll data.

ANNOUNCEMENT - NEW! NEDA is today releasing a brief paper in rebuttal to Mark Lindeman of Bard College who wrote a recent essay supporting the shoddy invalid exit poll analyses of the Election Science Institute (ESI) and Mitofsky that were released in June and presented at the American Statistical Association conference in October.

This is YOUR little Xmas present from me, so don't say I never gave you anything. ;-)

http://www.electionarchive.org/ucvAnalysis/US/exit-polls/ESI/Mark-Lindeman-Response.pdf

Please read this interesting paper (to me at least ;-) and pass it on, to any reputable mathematical department, or to a press person who would be willing to ask any reputable math department to evaluate it, including Bard's mathematics department, who can correctly evaluate their professor Lindeman's essay, ESI/Mitofsky's analysis, and NEDA's mathematical logic proof and inform us who is correct. If only we could get the press to cover this, it would correctly set the stage for our scientifically sound Ohio exit poll analysis that will be released soon.

NEDA has mathematically disproven Mitofsky's exit poll analysis! You'd think that the press might find that interesting, but then the media (NEP) is Mitofsky's biggest client, so perhaps that causes issues?

Kathy Dopp
http://uscountvotes.org
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